Annual report · 2026 edition

State of
Trading 2026

What 4,200+ traders, 4 million trades, and 12 months of anonymised platform data reveal about how traders actually perform — and where they lose money.

4,219
Traders analysed
4.1M
Trades studied
12 months
Data window
6 regimes
Market conditions
Platform overview

The numbers at a glance

58%
Average win rate
Across all traders, all styles
1.41
Average profit factor
Median, not mean
9.4%
Average max drawdown
Rolling 12-month
14m
Average hold time
Day traders; 3.2d swing
31%
Improvement in expectancy
After 90 days on platform
4.6
Leaks identified per user
In first 30 days
Timing analysis

When the edge lives — and when it doesn't

Aggregate win rate and average P&L per 30-min window across 4,219 traders. The pattern is remarkably consistent.

9:30
10:00
10:30
11:00
11:30
12:00
12:30
13:00
13:30
14:00
14:30
15:00
15:30
16:00
Positive avg P&LNegative avg P&LMidday slump 12–14h: avg -$108 per session
Best window
9:30–11:00 AM
64% avg win rate · +$300 avg P&L
Worst window
12:00–13:30 PM
45% avg win rate · -$105 avg P&L
Most traded
10:00–11:30 AM
38% of all trades taken here
Leak analysis

The 6 most expensive habits in trading

Average weekly dollar cost per trader who exhibits each behaviour. Sample: traders with 50+ annotated trades.

1
Revenge trading after 2+ losses
$312/wk
2.1× per week
2
Trading outside playbook rules
$247/wk
3.4 times per week
3
Midday trading (12–14h EST)
$198/wk
1.8× per week
4
Oversizing on high-conviction trades
$176/wk
1.2× per week
5
Holding losers, cutting winners early
$134/wk
2.9× per week
6
Trading through high-impact events
$118/wk
0.9× per week

Average dollar cost assumes $25k account size. Rates will vary by account size and instrument.

Discipline & playbooks

Grade A trades are 2.7× more profitable than Grade D

Trades auto-scored against their playbooks, across all 4,219 accounts. Expectancy by compliance grade.

A
Playbook compliance
23%
of all trades
Win rate71%
Expectancy+1.2R
B
Playbook compliance
31%
of all trades
Win rate62%
Expectancy+0.8R
C
Playbook compliance
28%
of all trades
Win rate52%
Expectancy+0.2R
D/F
Playbook compliance
18%
of all trades
Win rate38%
Expectancy-0.7R

Key finding: Traders who score below 60% playbook compliance for 4+ weeks in a row show an average account drawdown of 14.2% — 2.3× the platform average. Enforcing rules is a risk management tool, not a nicety.

Setup performance

Which setups actually have edge

Expectancy and win rate by tagged setup, minimum 500 occurrences. All account sizes, all instruments.

Setup
Win rate
Expectancy
Edge
ORB (Opening Range Breakout)
63%
+0.84R
high
Momentum breakout
57%
+0.61R
high
VWAP pullback
55%
+0.48R
medium
Gap fill
52%
+0.31R
medium
Mean reversion
49%
+0.08R
low
FOMO / news reaction
38%
-0.42R
negative
Revenge entry
31%
-0.91R
negative
Behavioural data

The psychology of real trading

Behavioural patterns extracted from trade logs, mood annotations, and session data.

Tilt episodes
2.3×/week

Average trader experiences 2.3 tilt episodes per trading week, defined as 3+ losses in under 30 minutes.

Loss aversion bias
74%

74% of traders hold losers 2.4× longer than winners — the classic disposition effect, measured from actual position holds.

Rule adherence
61%

The average trader follows their playbook rules 61% of the time. A-grade traders: 91%. C-grade traders: 38%.

Weekly review rate
34%

Only 34% of traders conduct a structured weekly review. Those who do show 44% higher 6-month consistency scores.

Regime analysis

Most traders use the same strategy in all 6 regimes

Performance breaks down dramatically when strategy doesn't match regime. Here's what the data shows.

Trending bull
28% of 2026
65%
Best setups: Momentum breakout, ORB
Trending bear
14% of 2026
58%
Best setups: Short momentum, gap fade
Choppy / low vol
22% of 2026
47%
Best setups: Mean reversion
High vol expansion
18% of 2026
61%
Best setups: Breakout, event fade
Event-driven
10% of 2026
43%
Best setups: Avoid or fade extremes
Range-bound
8% of 2026
54%
Best setups: Fades, VWAP plays
Prop firm traders

The top reasons funded traders bust their challenges

Analysed across FTMO, TopStep, Apex, and 12 other challenge providers. n = 847 challenge attempts.

1
Violated daily loss limit38%
2
Single large revenge trade27%
3
Traded through news event16%
4
Sized up during drawdown12%
5
Other / unclear7%
TradeVision users
+43%
higher challenge pass rate

TradeVision users who set up FTMO/TopStep/Apex risk templates before starting their challenge passed at a 43% higher rate than the industry average.

Auto-configured daily loss limits
Kill-switch fires before rules breach
No midday trading enforced by rule
Methodology

How this data was collected

All data is anonymised and aggregated. No individual trader's data is identifiable. The dataset covers January 2025 – December 2025, drawn from 4,219 active TradeVision accounts with a minimum of 50 logged trades during the period.

Inclusion criteria

Accounts with 50+ logged trades, at least one playbook defined, and an active session for 80%+ of the period.

Exclusion criteria

Accounts flagged as test/demo, accounts with average trade size < $500 notional, and accounts with <3 months active.

Statistical methods

Median used for financial figures to reduce outlier impact. 95% confidence intervals reported where sample sizes vary. Regime classification via proprietary HMM model.

Data refresh

This report reflects a single-year snapshot. Data is not updated retroactively. A new edition is published each January.

See your own numbers — not the averages.

Every stat in this report is available for your account inside TradeVision. Start your 5-day trial and run your personal State of Trading in 10 minutes.

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